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Extract from reuters
LAGOS (Reuters) - - A wave of violence hours after Nigeria's
government announced a truce with Boko Haram raised
doubt on Sunday about whether more than 200 schoolgirls
kidnapped by the Islamist militants will really be
released, deflating the new hopes of their parents.
Nigeria's armed forces chief Air Chief Marshal Alex Badeh
announced the ceasefire on Friday to enable the release of
the girls, who were abducted from the remote northeastern
village of Chibok in April.
But Boko Haram has not confirmed the truce and there
have been at least five attacks since - blamed by security
sources on the insurgents - that have killed dozens. Talks
were scheduled to continue in neighboring Chad on
Monday.
"We were jubilating. We had every reason to be happy ...
but since then the ceasefire has been broken in quite a
number of places already," Lawan Abana, a parent of the
one of the missing girls, told Reuters by telephone.
He added that there were doubts about the credentials of
the reported Boko Haram negotiator Danladi Ahmadu,
who was unheard of before. "Can we trust him that he can
deliver on this promise of releasing the girls when he has
not delivered on the promise of the ceasefire?" Abana said.
The government says the attacks may not have been Boko
Haram but one of several criminal groups exploiting the
chaos of its insurgency. Analysts point out that Boko
Haram is anyway heavily factionalized, so what matters
is whether the faction the government is talking to has
control over the girls' fate.
"Boko Haram is deeply fractured. The Nigerian government
has had a ... difficult time identifying a Boko Haram
representative who could make compromises and
guarantee the entire group will observe them," risk
consultancy Stratfor said in a note.
"It is quite possible that Abuja has reached an agreement
with a legitimate representative of a specific cell ... that
holds the kidnapped schoolgirls captive," it said on
Saturday.
QUEST TO CARVE OUT ISLAMIC STATE
Boko Haram, whose name translates roughly as "Western
education is sinful", has massacred thousands in a battle
to carve an Islamic state out of religiously mixed Nigeria.
Its only known method of conveying messages is via
videotaped speeches by a man claiming to be Abubakar
Shekau, its leader whom the military last year said it had
killed.
Ahmed Salkida, a Nigerian journalist who was once close
to Boko Haram and shared a jail cell with its founder
Mohammed Yusuf in 2009, tweeted that whoever Ahmadu
is, he is not a member of Boko Haram's senior "Shura
council" nor does "he speak for them, as far as I know".
A swift release of the girls would bode well for the
campaign of President Goodluck Jonathan for Feb. 2015
elections. Jonathan has faced relentless criticism for failing
to protect civilians in the northeast or resolve the Chibok
girls crisis.
Boko Haram is regarded as the worst threat to the future of
Nigeria, Africa's biggest economy and oil producer.
Jonathan is expected to declare he is running for a second
elected term soon, and the opposition is keen not to allow
him to capitalize on efforts to free the girls.
"It's interesting the timing comes as Jonathan is about to
announce he wants to run for a second term. Is it by sheer
coincidence?" the spokesman for the main All Progressives
Congress, Lai Mohammed, said by telephone.
But Nigeria's military has scored some successes against
Boko Haram over the past two weeks, wresting back some
territory near the northeast border with Cameroon.
Oby Ezekwesil, whose "Bring back our girls" campaign has
highlighted daily protests in Abuja, told Reuters she was
"cautiously optimistic" but "extremely anxious, not
knowing what the details of this ceasefire really are.
"If it happens, it would be the best news in decades."
(Fixing spelling of Chibok village in 2nd paragraph)
(Editing by Mark Heinrich)
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